TheNFL Draftalways leads to surprises. Those surprises, whether it's an unexpectedly early selection or a surprise fall, combined with the heavy dosage of hopium that gets pumped out of television and computer screens every time that little bell notification goes off, is what makes what used to be a glorified conference call so enthralling. Every evaluator, whether they're in a public forum or employed by a professional sports team, is going to come to a different conclusion researching prospects for their sports. Some consensus will generally form, whether that's groupthink, an obvious opinion, or some other factor. This 2026 draft class, though, lacks that consensus we generally see in the ensuing weeks after key league gatherings in the spring. That applies to how position stacks rank, who is on top of those stacks, and really just how high to put those stacks up. And that's, of course, applicable to this year's group of quarterbacks. After Fernando Mendoza,whose selection to the Las Vegas Raiders with the No. 1 pickseems like the only sure thing for this year's draft, there's a dropoff to the next group of signal callers. At leastto methere is.
And I saygroup, because that's how I consider Alabama's Ty Simpson and LSU's Garrett Nussmeier: two quarterbacks that I have similarly tiered, but that tier is well below Mendoza and other names that have gone early in the past few drafts. Every draft season, I like to profile the top names we might hear in April. In 2024, that took me a while. In 2025, not as long. Same for this year's crop of signal callers.
But while there aren't many names at the top, that doesn't make this class any less interesting. Perhaps even more so because of that lack of consensus and with so many varied opinions out there. So join me as a unknot the "other two" quarterback prospects of this year's group.
All data via TruMedia unless otherwise note
Ty Simpson: Advanced processor with some limitations
There's differences between Simpson and Nussmeier, but there's also a good amount of overlap with the two players' profiles. They both sat behind other players at their respective SEC schools. They are both sons of football coaches, with their pocket movement reflecting players that have gotten proper coaching in the past. They both are willing to fire the football down the field, playing like a couple of unkinked firehoses finally spraying the pigskin everywhere after years of waiting their time and now get to show off. Both lack ideal size — Nussmeier stood 6-foot2 and weighed 203 pounds while Simpson stood 6-1 ⅛ and weighed 211 pounds at the NFL combine. They are both tough players who will stand in to deliver throws, take a big hit, and get back up likeRandy Marsh at a Little League baseball game.
But because they have similar player profiles and are in a similar tier (again, at least to me), doesn't mean they have the same projection. And it's these little differences in flavor that makes scouting players so fun to parse through. Simpson is a quick and accurate thrower underneath on quick game concepts. He's willing to go one-by-one on his progressions, notably performing better (and quicker) on plays where he has time in the pocket. That last part is notable because he can have a bit too much fat as he does work through things. He flashes some promising operation, but can still hang atadtoo long as he gets through things. Which is why his non-pressured snaps feature some excellent displays of zip and accuracy, and dirtier pockets lead to more sprays and sacks. Simpson tends to throw shorter when under pressure and his efficiency notably drops off (ranking in the 59th percentile in success rate when under pressure among qualifying FBS quarterbacks since 2020).
If you look at his development through an optimistic lens, you can project Simpson to start trimming that fat as he gets more reps. His late-season sprays can also be attributed to battling through injuries. The pessimistic take is that his size, or lack thereof, leads to him getting beat up. And if he had beaten out Jalen Milroe as Alabama's starting quarterback, then he would have had more game reps than his 15 games in 2025 and a snack pack of about four dozen throws before that (Simpson did have 537 dropbacks in 2025, so it was at least a healthy portion of ball plays to look at when scouting him).
It's encouraging to see Simpson, despite his lack of career starts, willing and able to progress through plays, which gets highlighted especially at times in the red zone. It's also encouraging that Simpson can create with his legs. He's a good athlete who can consistently and quickly accelerate out of the pocket, with the flexibility to work to his left as a thrower.
That extra fat is what I focus on when watching Simpson. Those extra quarter seconds add up. And when people refer to "NFL windows," they are referring to the space that closes immensely faster at the next level. Those are the extra inches, feet and, hell, yards that NFL defenders can cover while an overwhelming number of college defenders simply cannot. His arm strength touches the threshold of "good," but he needs more of his body to access it. His throwing motion isn't elongated and he's a loose athlete who can get snappiness into his throws, but it's more that he needs a clean pocket to step into a throw after, preferably, being able to hitch into it. He's like a pitcher with a fastball that sits 93-94 mph but can rear back and get up to 97-98. He can access that zip, but that rearing back aspect matters, too. When Simpson isn't able to fully get through his operation, with the step and follow-through afterward (watch how his right foot comes through with passes like a pitcher getting into a proper fielding position), then his accuracy starts to waver more than you'd like to see, and his lack of size starts to show up.
Defenders in coverage can close that much quicker on the football if the pass has to have a full hitch, or even hitches, before it's released. It's not even that those plays lead to turnovers, just lost opportunities as windows close before a tardy quarterback can even get himself into a throwing position. Defenders at the line of scrimmage can be a nuisance when a quarterback takes those extra beats. Blitzers get their hands up to beat the ball down like they'reGaylord Focker in a pool volleyball gameas stifled pass rushers put their hands up when they know they can't get home but recognize the incoming throw is about to happen. This isn't just theory with Simpson, he had 10 balls batted at the line of scrimmage in 2025, tied for 12th most among FBS quarterbacks. Those extra half-counts combined with Simpson's sub-6-2 height can lead to murkier passing lanes and tighter windows than necessary if he gets the ball out just a beat or even half-beat late.
Even with those blemishes, there's a lot to like with Simpson. He has some truly excellent throws on tape; beautiful passes over the middle of the field, some flair for touch over intermediate defenders, explosives created after escaping the pocket and targeting a throw past the sticks. He has experience operating from under center and turning his back to the defense, something that a large chunk of NFL offensive play-callers would prefer to have a part of their arsenal, even if they don't exactly major in it. But it helps to have it least be a valid enough of a threat with every type of offensive action.
Simpson's lack of starting experience and his size are outliers as well. While Simpson was over 210 pounds at the combine, his frame and build makes me think his season weight is something a notch below that. It's not a huge list of quarterbacks that end up as long-term starters below 6-2, and especially when below 210 pounds. And even more so if any quarterback weighs below 205 pounds. More on that a little later, because speaking of below 205 pounds: Let's get to Garrett Nussmeier.
Garrett Nussmeier: Gun slinger style with a small frame
Now, while every quarterback gets affected by pressure and tight pockets to throw from, how they mitigate it is an important attribute. Do they navigate the pocket to push the ball down the field or try to rely on their athleticism and bail backward out of the pocket? Do they just launch and pray a throw downfield will work out or dink passes quickly to try and avoid a hit? One size doesn't fit all for how a quarterback, or any player, "wins" at their position.
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Nussmeier wins at quarterback by putting the football in play. Muddy pocket? That football is coming out. Under pressure? That football is coming out. Clean pocket? That football is getting launched. Nussmeier knows what he is (complimentary). He's not very big, and he isn't an excellent athlete, or even a very good one (he's an effective scrambler when he chooses to be, though). Nussmeier knows he has to win with his arm and smarts, even when under duress. He has shown a propensity for avoiding sacks by getting rid of the football quickly and knowing how to drift away from pressure.
Nussmeier has maintained a low sack rate in his two years of starting (3.4% sack rate and 13% pressure to sack rate, which rank in the 90th and 83rd percentile among 225 FBS quarterbacks with 500 or more career pass attempts since 2020). He was especially good in 2024 with, relatively, much better surroundings in Baton Rouge (Simpson also dealt with a frustrating amount of drops). Nussmeier also had a 4% scramble rate when under pressure in his college career, which is in the 5th percentile among 225 FBS quarterbacks since 2020. He doesn't scramble much, he doesn't get sacked much, what does he do?Check your reports or I'm going to point at Pete, he puts the ball in play.
Nussmeier is a gun slinger in every sense of the word. Like Simpson, Nussmeier shows a good understanding of working through concepts to find an answer. Although, I think Nussmeier has better pace when working through his progressions, something he especially showed in 2024 when he was healthy. It particularly showed up in key late-game situations and when LSU was in scoring range.
He's willing to push the ball, although his average depth of target fell off a cliff in 2025 because of the lack ofanythingaround him at LSU. The Tigers had to resort to plenty of quick-hitting screens to help out their offensive line and give Nussmeier a chance to even operate. I thought Nussmeier's quick motion and flair for creativity showed up on those short throws. He has a knack for getting throws around defenders on underneath throws.
Nussmeier also plays with excellent timing and knows how to maximize his arm with how quickly he gets rid of the football. That's not only the case for quick throws but also when he's attempting to avoid a sack. Nussmeier will throw routes to the outside well before his receiver gets into a break, which helps his teammates enhance any space they've created but also beats any pass rushers before they can get home (and Nussmeier had to deal with a lot of pass rushers in his face). And while his arm is good enough for the NFL when he has to drive it, Nussmeier throws a gorgeous deep ball that he can launch from tight spaces, too, leading to an expanded range for safeties to worry about.
But, that leads to the glass half-empty viewpoint: Nussmeier already shows off that knack for getting the ball out early, a reflection of his polish and the benefit of having a father who played and coached in the NFL and his own experience (Nussmeier will already be 24 years old when drafted). He already helps alleviate the stress of not having elite traits as much as possible, but is there any more to tap into? What you see might be what you get with Nussmeier, who has (almost) two seasons of starting under his belt but is six months older than New England Patriots QB Drake Maye. Nussmeier's aggressive play style and willingness to get rid of the football, even under duress, can lead to him putting the ball in harm's way. It's a side effect of assuming how something will unfold or when he's drifting away from heat to deliver the football.
The other variable is something I've hinted at with Simpson and earlier. It's just sheer playing weight and bulk.
Only two quarterbacks with a listed weight at or below 205 pounds have been drafted this millennium and gone on to start 100 or more games: Lamar Jackson (an all-time athlete and thrower at the position) and Kirk Cousins (a fourth-round selection who sat on the bench before having a career arc of several franchises, lots of money made, and a tier of quarterbacks named after him). If you include the year Will Smith's Willennium album came out (1999), then you can include Jeff Garcia as well. Garcia was undrafted before having success in Canada and then journeying back to a good career in San Francisco and beyond.
The league average for adjusted net yards (which accounts for sack yardage and weighs touchdowns and interceptions) in 2025 was 6.0. There have only been seven quarterbacks listed at 205 pounds or less who have even cracked 5.5 adjusted net yards (minimum 500 career pass attempts)since 1970: Jackson, Cousins, Garcia, Joe Montana, Dan Fouts, Roger Staubach and, of course, Doug Flutie.
That's quite a list of names! Heisman winners, record holders, champions. But it's also a list of outliers.
Where to draft these QBs
Weight and traits matter for all positions in football. They're a sliding scale for the other nuances and needs of each position. And that includes the quarterback position. It's not always entirely one-to-one (otherwise Anthony Richardson would be still in the midst of an Iron Man streak), but weight and bulk helps with durability and helps with the constant barrage of arms and bodies that are around the quarterback when he's throwing the football. The quarterback doesn't always have to be hit or sacked to be affected on his throw, and it's not just free-running defenders who can add to that. The tight squeeze of the pockets can alter arm angles, trajectories, and throwing platforms. The upper tier quarterbacks are incredible at navigating these spaces, but even the middle-tier of NFL starters have moments, sometimes several in a row, of pulling off high-difficulty throws. The mark of 205 pounds is an arbitrary cut-off, but it helps illustrate my point that Simpson, and especially Nussmeier, as much as I like aspects of their games, they would be outliers at a position from just a sheer build and college starting experience standpoint.
If you look at the totalities of their careers, which yes is really just one full season for Simpson (523 pass attempts) and about 1,000 pass attempts total for Nussmeier, their efficiency as players was mostly the same. Nussmeier had a touch higher success rate. Simpson scrambles more, Nussmeier takes fewer sacks and gets the ball out quicker. Both had similar levels of explosive plays.
Where would I be comfortable drafting these players?Right about where I have them on my big board: the middle-to-late second round, and even preferably a little later than that. Now, quarterback stocks get wildly inflated. And the lack of, well, really anything in this year's draft can lead to even more inflation. The highs of both of these players, along with the blemishes of their inconsistencies and outlier profiles, keeps me from giving either of these quarterbacks a true first-round grade or even the tier after that. Even though there are differences between them, how I see their upside, middleside, and downside, are fairly similar: a chance to be a solid starter who could lead a good offense with a proper surroundings. Their middle projection is most likely a strong backup, spot starter, bridge quarterback candidate (think the Jacoby Brissett or maybe even Mac Jones tier of player). And if you want an upside comparison for fun, Nussmeier's is something like Kirk Cousins on acid. Maybe that's just Jim McMahon (who had 97 starts at a listed 195 pounds, by the way). Simpson's combination of size and loose athleticism is something like later career Rich Gannon.
I have Nussmeier a little higher than Simpson. Even though he's older and lacks size, the way he can stay aggressive while still operating in the confines of the offenses, with the mini-extensions of plays he makes with his pocket movement, all while having the deep understanding of its pre-snap operation and answers, is what makes me think he can have a chance of being one of those outliers in the right situation. He plays like someone who knows he is an outlier, while having the added benefit of knowing what the NFL transition is like (or as much as one can know), so there won't be as much shock to his system as he makes the jump.
TheNFL Draftalways leads to surprises. Those surprises, whether it's an unexpectedly early selection or a surprise fa...
